Is It Too Late?
by Jim Scott
You know the feeling.  The guy across the street has made a killing in some dot-com stock and you think you should own some.  But you wonder about the high price and eventually pass on the stock.  You probably came to the conclusion that you were just too late and that the stock is now considerably overvalued.

Not a day goes by without me having to field the same question about the Metro residential real estate market—is it too late?  Are prices too high? There is nothing worse than staying too late at the party.  You always regret it the next day.  Some buyers seem to be throwing caution to the wind.  Maybe they know something I don't. 

 I am not saying they are wrong nor am I casting myself as a worrisome bear. I have been through three real estate recessions, each one more painful than the last,  and that perhaps explains some of my caution. In addition, many of my competitors whose judgment I value have broached the same question. They are for the most part veterans of several real estate recessions. They have voiced concerns that we are at or nearing the top of the market. 

 I am not saying a recession is around the corner.  After all, anyone who predicts a market correction is eventually proved right.  What I am saying that if you are contemplating purchasing real estate today you should ask some questions about your own financial strength and staying power. 

Is Market Timing Important?

Most buyers purchase real estate for the long term and what is being written here means little to them.  You need a home and you purchase what you can afford.  If the value declines twenty percent it doesn’t matter.  Your payment stays the same and you have shelter.  If you need a larger house or need to change neighborhoods it still doesn’t matter.  You sell your discounted house and buy another discounted house. 

Market timing is important mainly in terms of your monthly payment.  Beyond that, if you are in the home for a long period of time, market timing just doesn’t matter.  The winners during real estate recessions are always the same people.  Those who are not over-extended and have money in the bank.  My caveat for this market is: do not buy as much house as you can afford—play it a bit conservatively.

Local News

I know a lot of people who are concerned about the proposed mixed use development between Falcon and Eagle Streets along Washington.  In the short run it will surely create many neighborhood problems.  No one is going to enjoy the construction process.  In the long run I suspect we will all get used to it and it should be a positive for our neighborhood. The development will provide the western anchor to the thriving commercial zone in Hillcrest. Washington, which has been unfriendly to walkers and an eyesore, will continue to improve and that will benefit our quality of life.

All of the Neo-traditional architects are striving to create new kinds of traditional communities similar to Seaside, Florida. They are all trying to recreate neighborhoods that are like ours. We have come full circle—builders are all trying to provide traditional neighborhoods like Mission Hills instead of the traditional suburban model.

We still need a stronger commercial presence in Mission Hills. I think this proposed development will give the business district a boost that will (eventually) enhance the quality of our lives. 

You can reach Jim Scott at his office at 1111 Fort Stockton Drive. Jim’s direct line is 885-9511.  Jim has been a homeowner in Mission Hills since 1976.  Scott & Quinn is the oldest full service real estate company in Mission Hills.  The 12 associates serve the beach and metro areas.  There is also a professional property management team on staff.